BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 3 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. In addition they possess a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. There are just 14 more seats remaining so that there won’t be far more time to qualify if you are trying to. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a money match play of mine . There are better fights to target when we are on the lookout for 1st round knockouts but I’ll be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is exactly why he’s the money play of this week. I really don’t think Moret has got the ability to really examine the chin of Gordon’s which has seemed to be his main weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I think he has 100+ upside in a choice win and I don’t see him getting completed here so he ought to have a good floor. I think his floor in a win is probably 80+ also which is completely fine for cash games. This is a catchy weak, however this is my personal preferred cash game spot of this week.
GPP drama of the week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, he then scores over 100 DK points and in his 8.8k salary which will put him on the 25k lineup. He will be quite chalky this week though so make sure you load up on him if you’re multi-entering if you would like to find leverage over the area. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I’ll be targeting both sides of this struggle, but I really do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a good deal of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog play of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I am not choosing any real underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who’d be regarded as an underdog I think will win and that I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we’re getting him $200 less than Greene but I would not be shocked if Albini was the favored on the betting line going into the fights. With these guys being Heavyweights, it doesn’t take much to acquire a knockout and if Albini can do that at $8k he could give me a run in the perfect lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her previous fight as well and she burnt me scoring a 1st round submission. I’m going back to the fade here though and trusting the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am choosing basically each favorite, I’d rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price label. I am not sure that moving to the floor is in her best interest in this struggle and when she stays standing I do not see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will likely only make ~20 and she will not make my player pool with this many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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